DÉFENSE ZONE
The Rafale’s horizon seems to be widening in Central Asia, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as potential new export targets for Dassault Aviation’s fighter. This prospect is gaining credibility following active steps by the French aircraft manufacturer and a favourable diplomatic context.
Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, following that of Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to France, points to a desire to deepen bilateral relations. These presidential visits seem to be paving the way for more concrete negotiations in the defence sector.
As for Uzbekistan, interest in the Rafale has been clearly expressed. The country is considering replacing its ageing aircraft, mainly MiG-29s and Sukhois, with more modern combat aircraft. Among the options under study, the Rafale ranks high, although Uzbekistan is also considering other models, notably the South Korean KAI FA-50. A possible acquisition of American aircraft seems unlikely, however, because of geopolitical sensitivities with Russia.
The case of Kazakhstan presents a different dynamic. Although Dassault Aviation is investing in the sales process, success in this country would be surprising. The Kazakh air fleet, ageing and made up mainly of Sukhois and MiGs, also needs renewing. However, Astana’s geopolitical and political closeness to Moscow could limit the chances of the Rafale being adopted. Moreover, the low volume of Kazakhstan’s military orders from France, despite a long-standing strategic partnership, underlines this reluctance.
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